Lebanon enters talks with Israel but with no cards to play

Lebanon’s Ceasefire Efforts Amid Tensions with Israel

Lebanon, once more, is caught in conflict. I recall a meeting with President Joseph Aoun at the Baabda Palace, a modernist structure atop a hill overlooking Beirut, in late August. Aoun, a retired military leader, assumed office after a brutal war between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militia and political faction backed by Iran. At that time, Hezbollah had been weakened and was isolated domestically, and Aoun pledged to dismantle its arsenal. The issue of Hezbollah’s weapons, a long-standing divide, seemed insurmountable, yet Aoun believed he could resolve it.

“He once described himself as an optimist,” he told me.

A fragile truce had halted the war between Israel and Hezbollah in November 2024, but Israeli strikes continued daily, targeting individuals and groups tied to the militia. In some regions, the conflict never ceased. From my residence in east Beirut, I occasionally heard the hum of Israeli drones flying above. For Hezbollah supporters, the group represents their sole shield against Israeli aggression. Critics, however, argue that Hezbollah, a Shia Muslim organization, prioritizes Iranian interests, drawing the nation into prolonged wars.

Hezbollah, or the Party of God in Arabic, emerged in the 1980s during Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon. Funded, trained, and armed by Iran, it has long opposed Israeli presence. The 1989 Taif Agreement, which concluded Lebanon’s civil war, required all militias to surrender their arms and established a power-sharing system among the country’s diverse communities. Yet Hezbollah retained its weapons, framing itself as a resistance movement. Israel withdrew its forces in 2000 after an 18-year occupation, but territorial disputes lingered. UN Resolution 1701, enacted in 2006 to end the war, still awaits full implementation.

President Aoun has championed a policy he terms the “state monopoly on arms.” Under a 2024 ceasefire agreement, Hezbollah agreed to relocate its fighters and weapons from southern Lebanon, a region it had controlled for decades. However, its leader, Naim Qassem, has resisted nationwide disarmament discussions. Aoun warned that forcing the removal of Hezbollah’s arms without consent could reignite violence. “We can’t let the country descend into another civil war,” he said during our August meeting.

With limited authority over Hezbollah, the Lebanese government faces a precarious situation. Israel recently disregarded Aoun’s proposal, only to engage in talks after the US brokered a ceasefire with Iran. The upcoming meeting between diplomats in Washington aims to address this. Despite efforts, the path to lasting peace remains uncertain. Hezbollah’s dual role as a political party and social network complicates matters, giving it immense influence in regions where state presence is weak.