After 16 years in power, can Viktor Orban finally be unseated?

After 16 years in power, can Viktor Orban finally be unseated?

Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, has faced his toughest challenge in a decade as the nation prepares for a pivotal parliamentary vote on 12 April. The opposition Tisza party, led by Peter Magyar, currently holds a commanding lead in opinion polls, with 58% of voters favoring them over Fidesz’s 35%. This shift has forced Orban to re-enter the political spotlight, rallying his base and targeting undecided citizens in a desperate bid to avoid a historic loss.

Orban’s fiery outburst during a March rally in Györ revealed a more volatile side of a leader typically portrayed as composed and strategic. “All they stand for is anger, hatred, and destruction,” he shouted, referencing opponents who had criticized his government. Such moments contrast with his usual charm, as the opposition’s growing momentum threatens to disrupt his 16-year rule, which has seen little serious opposition since 2010.

The election has sparked a wave of public discontent, particularly among younger voters, who now view Orban and Fidesz as symbols of a corrupt elite. Accusations of misusing state funds for projects benefiting close allies—like bridges, stadiums, and motorways—have fueled this perception. His son-in-law, Istvan Tiborcz, owns notable hotels, while his childhood friend Lörinc Meszaros, once a gas fitter, has become the country’s richest individual. Despite these claims, Orban and his allies consistently deny any wrongdoing.

Analysts note a significant shift in public sentiment, with support for Fidesz declining from 44% in January to 35% by March. “This reflects a major change in trust,” says Endre Hann of the Median agency. “People believe the tide is turning.” Yet, Orban’s team claims the opposition is fabricating narratives to justify a potential loss. “These scandals are just the usual suspects creating a story,” argues Zoltan Kiszelly of the government think tank Szazadveg. “When they lose, they’ll blame fraud.”

Orban’s campaign has also faced unusual tactics, including a Russian-backed plan to stage a fake assassination attempt. While these moves aim to sway voters, they have not stemmed the opposition’s advance. The election is seen as a broader test for Europe’s nationalist movements, with Orban serving as a flagship figure. His government has long been at odds with the EU, and his reluctance to back Ukraine has further solidified his image as a leader of illiberal democracy.

Michael Ignatieff, former rector of the Central European University, highlights the global stakes: “Budapest is the headquarters of illiberal democracy. This isn’t just an election—it’s a referendum on authoritarian rule.” With just days left, Orban must convince Hungarians, especially in rural areas, that his vision of a more efficient and humane country remains viable. The outcome could reshape political dynamics across the continent.