Experts dispute US account of deadly Iran sports hall strike in Lamerd
Experts dispute US account of deadly Iran sports hall strike in Lamerd
On the opening day of the conflict, a group of weaponry specialists has contested the U.S. assertion that Iran could have carried out a fatal attack on Lamerd. Six analysts, who evaluated video evidence of the strike and provided independent assessments, argued against the US claim that the weapon involved was an Iranian missile. Their analysis focused on the missile’s visual characteristics, its detonation pattern, flight path, and the frequency of attacks in the region.
Iranian authorities reported that 21 individuals, including four children, were killed in the strike. BBC Verify initially reported the event on 28 March, with experts suggesting the missile resembled a US Precision Strike Missile (PrSM). However, the US Central Command (Centcom), which manages US military operations in the Middle East, did not respond to that report. Later, Centcom issued a statement on 31 March, stating that the footage aligned with an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile.
“US forces do not target civilians, unlike the Iranian regime which has attacked civilian locations in neighboring countries more than 300 times,”
the statement emphasized. When BBC Verify revisited Centcom with the experts’ findings, it received no additional comments. Lamerd, located in southern Iran, was struck on 28 February. Verified CCTV footage, authenticated by BBC Verify, captured a munition moments before it detonated above a residential zone.
Expert Analysis of the Strike
Analysts identified the weapon as possibly a US missile, based on its appearance, the blast size, and proximity to potential launch sites in the region. In the initial BBC Verify report, three defense intelligence analysts at Janes and one expert from McKenzie Intelligence all concluded the missile was likely a PrSM. A separate New York Times investigation also pointed toward the PrSM as the culprit.
Centcom’s Denial and BBC Verify’s Follow-Up
On Tuesday, US Navy Captain Tim Hawkins confirmed Centcom’s stance, stating: “After looking into the reports, U.S. Central Command has confirmed the accusations are false.” He added that US forces did not strike Lamerd or any area within 30 miles during the operation’s first day. “The munition depicted in the video appears to be twice as long, consistent with the dimensions and silhouette of an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile,” he said.
“U.S. forces did not launch any strikes at any time into the city of Lamerd or anywhere within 30 miles during the opening day of Operation Epic Fury,”
captured in the statement. Yet, multiple experts challenged Centcom’s claim, highlighting the Hoveyzeh’s unique traits, such as its belly-mounted turbojet and mid-body wings, which weren’t visible in the footage.
Additional Evidence and Discrepancies
Meanwhile, nearly 400 kilometers east, strikes targeted a school and a military site in Minab, resulting in 168 casualties, according to Iranian officials. Video analysis suggested a US Tomahawk missile hit the compound. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the incident was under review, reaffirming that US forces “never target civilian targets.”
Amael Kotlarski, a Janes analyst, noted that the Hoveyzeh’s turbojet and wings would be visible regardless of viewing angle. “None of that is clearly distinguishable from the footage,” he said. Another McKenzie Intelligence expert disagreed, stating the missile in the video lacked wings or an external engine. They pointed to “canard fins,” a feature of the PrSM, as evidence.
“The length of the missile was ‘much more consistent with the PrSM’ than a Hoveyzeh missile,”
added Trevor Ball from Bellingcat, emphasizing the visual differences between the two systems. Despite low-resolution footage, experts confirmed the weapon exploded mid-air, aligning with the PrSM’s airburst capability to spread debris over a broader area.
