The US-Israeli war on Iran is founded on two huge mistakes

The US-Israeli War on Iran is Based on Two Major Errors

Over two weeks have passed since Israel and the US launched their attack on Iran, delivering relentless aerial strikes as US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth claimed. It appears the decision to initiate hostilities against Iran was rooted in two critical miscalculations.

Two Key Misjudgments

The first error stems from an American overestimation of the ability to dismantle Iran’s ruling structure. The second reflects an Israeli misunderstanding of Hezbollah’s capacity to retaliate.

“If we had not acted swiftly, within months Iran’s weapons of mass destruction would have become unstoppable,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated during his first televised address following the conflict.

Netanyahu asserted that the Israeli-US assault would create conditions for the Iranian populace to rise against their regime, aiming to dismantle the Islamic Republic. US President Donald Trump further insisted that his actions averted a nuclear confrontation, declaring: “If we didn’t do it, they were going to strike first.”

Despite these declarations, the campaign’s core objective—regime change—remains unfulfilled. Iran’s resilience, even after significant losses, challenges the assumption that its government would collapse under pressure.

Failure to Achieve Strategic Goals

Israel and the US initially believed Iran’s capabilities to threaten them had been severely weakened. Following the 12-day campaign, Netanyahu hailed the outcome as “a historic victory,” claiming the Islamic Republic’s ability to annihilate Israel via nuclear weapons or 20,000 ballistic missiles had been neutralized.

However, the reality is that Iran’s nuclear and missile programs endured substantial damage but were not entirely crippled. Recent strikes on Gulf nations and Israel, alongside the killing of US personnel, reveal the regime’s continued strength.

Iran swiftly replaced its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei, signaling the regime’s stability. Demonstrations against the Islamic Republic in Tehran and other cities have not materialized as anticipated, underscoring the government’s endurance.

The assumption of regime change was fueled by earlier victories, such as the weakening of Iran’s allies in Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria. Yet, despite the combined might of Israel and the US, the Iranian system remains intact. This has led to a broader realization: the attack may have emboldened Iran to assert its dominance in the region, challenging American influence.

With Iran capable of targeting critical infrastructure and disrupting global energy supplies, the war has shifted from a strategic triumph to a test of American hegemony. The failure to topple the regime signifies a pivotal moment in the balance of power between Iran and its Western adversaries.