Why Trump means the Cuban Revolution faces its biggest threat yet

Why Trump means the Cuban Revolution faces its biggest threat yet

Cuban state museums, including the Museum of the Revolution in Havana, display stark images of life under the regime that preceded the 1959 revolution. These exhibits feature photographs and firsthand accounts from the era of Fulgencio Batista’s military dictatorship, highlighting widespread poverty and entrenched corruption. One recurring scene is of a woman in a palm-leaf hut with a dirt floor, cooking over firewood. Such visuals are common across the island, from the Bay of Pigs to Birán, Castro’s birthplace, reinforcing the narrative that the revolutionaries rescued Cuba from Batista’s rule and ushered in a new era of dignity and self-reliance.

Yet for Lisandra Botey, a Havana housewife, these historical images now symbolize present-day struggles. “We’re living like that now, we’re exactly like that,” she says outside her home, which is patched together with scrap metal and wood. The daily routine for her family includes trekking to the beach for firewood, as electricity is often unreliable. “If we get power, it comes on during school hours,” she adds, describing how her nine-year-old daughter starts the day without breakfast. Her husband, Brenei Hernández, a construction worker with little work, echoes the sentiment: “Every day is the same hunger, the same misery.” He prepares a simple rice dish to at least provide his daughter with something warm to eat upon returning from school.

The Cuban economy has deteriorated sharply since the coronavirus pandemic. In Havana’s suburbs, gas has not reached Brenei’s home for months, forcing families to rely on firewood and charcoal. This hardship intensified after U.S. troops ousted Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro on 3 January, removing a key ally. The U.S. has since seized control of Venezuela’s oil industry, cutting off crude supplies to Cuba. Trump’s administration has also escalated its economic pressure by threatening tariffs on countries exporting oil to the island. Despite this, none of Cuba’s traditional partners—Mexico, Russia, China, Vietnam, or Iran—have stepped in to offset the loss.

The U.S. Treasury recently eased some restrictions on oil sales to Cuba, framing it as support for the population’s “commercial and humanitarian use.” However, tensions between Washington and Havana remain high. Cuba’s government reported that border guards shot four U.S.-registered speedboat passengers, who were Cuban citizens living abroad. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the incident “highly unusual,” while Cuban economist Ricardo Torres noted that Trump’s policies are rewriting the rules of the game. “Washington’s old playbook on Cuba doesn’t apply anymore,” Torres said. “Whoever hasn’t appreciated that yet is in for a shock.”

The fuel crisis has gripped the entire nation. In Havana, power outages can stretch for 15 hours or more, leaving hospitals in darkness and schools frequently closed. Trash piles up on street corners as garbage trucks struggle to operate. Elderly and frail residents often sift through discarded waste to find sustenance. For an island that once prided itself on progress, these conditions now reflect a deepening crisis. While the Cuban government has weathered past hardships, the question remains: will this latest challenge be enough to unravel the revolution from within?

“Cuba is ready to fall,” declared Trump, amplifying pressure on the island at its most vulnerable moment since the Cold War. The underlying strategy, according to some analysts, is to weaken the revolution’s grip and hasten the collapse of Cuba’s socialist system.