A SpaceX rocket was on a collision course with the moon. Here’s what could happen
A SpaceX Rocket Headed for Moon Collision: What to Expect
Earthguardiansonline.com – A SpaceX rocket stage is on a collision course with the Moon, and the impact could create a new crater on the lunar surface. The second stage of a Falcon 9 rocket, weighing about four tons, is hurtling toward Earth’s natural satellite at speeds over 5,000 miles per hour. This unplanned encounter was expected to occur in the early hours of Wednesday morning, with scientists monitoring the approach closely.
From Rocket to Lunar Crater
The wayward rocket stage has been drifting through space since its original mission ended. Launched on January 15, 2025, the Falcon 9 carried two commercial robotic landers bound for the Moon. While the first stage returned safely to Earth, the upper stage continued its journey. After propelling the landers toward their destination, this second stage was left to wander through space, eventually finding itself on a path toward the Moon. Researchers estimate the collision will generate a crater measuring between 65 and 90 feet across. This assessment comes from a preprint study conducted by a team including scientists affiliated with NASA. The impact location is expected to be near Einstein Crater on the lunar surface.
Tracking the Unplanned Impact
Independent astronomers monitoring publicly available orbital data were among the first to identify that the Falcon 9 upper stage had entered a trajectory intersecting with the Moon. NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies, typically focused on tracking asteroids and other space rocks, also verified the rocket stage’s path. The agency confirmed that while the impact would be dramatic for the Moon, it poses absolutely no risk to Earth. The timing of the collision was calculated for 2:35 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday. Astronomers across the Americas, positioned with optimal viewing conditions, directed both ground-based and space-based telescopes toward the Moon in anticipation of capturing the event.
Visibility and Scientific Observation
The distance between Earth and the Moon—approximately 225,623 miles—means the impact would not be visible to the naked eye. Even through telescopes, the event might prove difficult to detect. Dr. Paul Wiegert, a professor of astronomy and physics at Western University in London, Ontario, provided context for observers.
If you imagine the moon is a clock, it’ll sort of roughly hit where the 10 would be. But that part of the moon is lit right now, so the bright flash will be muted by that brightness of the moon itself.
Despite the challenges of visibility, Wiegert noted that the debris plume generated by the cylindrical rocket stage could be illuminated by sunlight, potentially making it detectable through telescopic observation.
Mission Background and Debris Management
The Falcon 9 rocket was transporting two distinct commercial landers on its lunar mission. The Blue Ghost lander, developed by Texas-based Firefly Aerospace, achieved a successful soft landing on the Moon in March 2025. Meanwhile, Ispace’s Resilience lander, developed by the Tokyo-based company, experienced a landing failure several months later. Julianna Scheiman, director of NASA Science and Dragon Programs at SpaceX, explained the operational considerations behind the rocket stage’s journey.
For missions heading to low-Earth orbit, the nearby region where the International Space Station circles our planet, SpaceX and other operators usually dispose of the upper stage by allowing it to burn up Earth’s atmosphere. But for high energy missions, we need to perform a different maneuver to ensure the second stage itself is safe per the appropriate rules and regulations. We did that here for the Ispace and Blue Ghost missions’ second stage, and what has happened is essentially a mixture of solar activity and gravity forces have put it on a path towards the moon.
Implications for Lunar Exploration
This rare encounter between an artificial object and the Moon offers scientists valuable opportunities to study Earth’s natural satellite. Researchers can analyze the impact crater and debris patterns to better understand lunar geology and surface composition. Additionally, the event provides practical insights for protecting astronauts and future lunar infrastructure from potential debris threats. As commercial spaceflight continues to grow, understanding how to manage rocket stages and other orbital debris becomes increasingly important for safe lunar exploration.
Frequently Asked Questions
When did the SpaceX rocket impact the Moon?
The impact was expected to occur in the early hours of Wednesday morning at 2:35 a.m. Eastern Time, though exact timing depended on precise orbital calculations.
How fast was the rocket stage traveling?
The Falcon 9 second stage was traveling at velocities exceeding 5,000 miles per hour as it approached the Moon.
Will the impact be visible from Earth?
The impact would not be visible to the naked eye due to the Moon’s distance of approximately 225,623 miles. However, telescopic observation might capture the debris plume illuminated by sunlight.
What is the expected size of the new crater?
Scientists estimate the collision will generate a crater measuring between 65 and 90 feet across, equivalent to 20 to 30 meters in diameter.
Does this impact pose any risk to Earth?
No. NASA confirmed that while the impact would be dramatic for the Moon, it poses absolutely no risk to Earth or its inhabitants.
