Brazil election heads to runoff after campaign dominated by crime, corruption and Trump

Brazil Election Heads to Runoff After Divisive First Round

Earthguardiansonline.com – Brazil election heads to runoff after neither right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro nor President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured the more than 50% of votes needed for an outright first-round victory. Brazilians will return to the polls on October 25 to choose the country’s next president.

Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula on Sunday, despite polls released shortly before voting that showed the two candidates effectively tied. The final contest pits Lula, the leftist incumbent seeking a fourth and likely final term, against a senator aiming to carry forward the political movement associated with his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro.

A campaign shaped by crime, corruption and polarization

The Brazil election heads to runoff at a time of deep political division, voter frustration and renewed concern about crime and corruption. Mandatory voting for most adults means turnout is typically among the highest in the Americas, making the October vote a major test of each candidate’s ability to attract support beyond their core bases.

Lula, 80, previously served as president from 2003 to 2010 before returning to office in 2023. His political rights were restored after Brazil’s Supreme Court annulled corruption convictions that had led to 580 days in prison. He later defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 presidential election.

“It’s two competing visions of what the country should look like and what Latin America should look like,” Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly and vice president of policy at Americas Society/Council of the Americas, said.

Jair Bolsonaro cannot run because he is serving a 27-year sentence after being convicted of attempting to overturn his 2022 election defeat through a coup attempt. He is under humanitarian house arrest because of health concerns, leaving Flávio Bolsonaro as the leading candidate representing the family’s political movement.

Eliminated candidates could influence the result

Four other candidates failed to reach the runoff: centrist psychiatrist and author Augusto Cury; former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado; Renan Santos, founder of Movimento Brasil Livre and candidate for the Missão party; and former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema. Their supporters may prove decisive as Lula and Bolsonaro try to build broader coalitions ahead of the second round.

The Brazil election heads to runoff with major consequences for domestic policy and Brazil’s standing abroad. As the world’s fifth-largest country and a leading Latin American power, Brazil’s next government will influence regional politics, trade relationships and diplomacy with Washington and Beijing.

Trump, tariffs and Brazil’s foreign-policy choices

Lula has championed multilateral diplomacy and maintained Brazil’s role as a major regional power while seeking greater distance from the United States. A Bolsonaro victory could bring Brazil closer to a regional conservative bloc aligned with US President Donald Trump.

China has been Brazil’s largest export destination since 2009, while relations with the United States have been strained by tariffs and disputes over political interference. In 2025, Trump announced tariffs on Brazilian products while citing what his administration called the politically motivated prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro. The tariffs were withdrawn in November, but they created difficulties for Flávio Bolsonaro after Brazilian businesses felt their effects.

Eduardo Bolsonaro, another son of the former president, moved to the United States and lobbied the Trump administration on his father’s behalf. Although he initially took credit for the pressure campaign, the issue became politically damaging as trade tensions affected Brazilian exporters. Additional duties imposed on some Brazilian goods this summer remain in force.

Brazil runoff FAQ

When is Brazil’s presidential runoff? The second-round vote is scheduled for October 25.

Why is there a runoff? No candidate won more than 50% of the vote in the first round, which is required to win the presidency outright.

Who will face each other? President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro will compete in the final vote.