Can the US military sustain a long war in Iran?

Can the US military sustain a long war in Iran?

On February 28, the U.S. military began its operation in Iran, marking a significant escalation in regional tensions. President Donald Trump asserted that the nation possesses “practically boundless” armaments, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed this confidence, claiming Iran “has no chance” of enduring the campaign. However, the reality of weapon stockpiles and their efficiency remains a critical factor in assessing the U.S. ability to maintain this conflict over an extended period.

Operation Epic Fury, initiated by the U.S. and its allies, saw thousands of strikes conducted across Iran within the first week. More than 20 weapon systems were deployed across air, land, and sea, targeting strategic locations. In the initial phase, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was reportedly eliminated, underscoring the intensity of the operation. Despite this, the war’s duration remains uncertain, with Trump suggesting a four-to-five-week timeframe, though he hinted at a longer potential.

“Our stockpiles of defensive and offensive weapons allow us to sustain this campaign as long as we need,” stated Hegseth during a visit to US Central Command on March 5.

Yet, concerns persist regarding the most advanced munitions. Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, noted that while the U.S. has ample lower-grade weapons, the highest-tier systems face supply challenges. “The most expensive interceptors and long-range missiles are the ones where we’re seeing the biggest strain,” she explained. These high-grade weapons, essential for countering Iran’s ballistic threats, are not only costly but also require time to manufacture.

The cost disparity highlights a key issue. Iran’s Shahed-136 drones, priced between $20,000 and $50,000, have been deployed in large numbers. In contrast, a single fighter jet equipped with AIM-9 missiles costs $450,000, and operating it requires $40,000 per hour. “The cost of an hour of fighter jet operation equals that of a Shahed drone,” Grieco remarked. She pointed out that the U.S. could adopt more cost-effective alternatives, such as cheaper interceptor drones, which were already tested but not widely procured.

Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, emphasized the rapid depletion of Patriot missiles. These high-end systems, priced at around $3 million each, are used to intercept Iran’s ballistic missiles. Cancian estimated that approximately 200–300 Patriots had been expended in the early stages of the conflict. “Lockheed Martin delivered just 620 PAC-3 interceptors in 2025,” he noted. “If a manufacturer were to produce another Patriot today, it would take at least two years to deliver it.”

For shorter-range weapons like bombs, JDAM kits, and Hellfire missiles, the situation appears more favorable. Cancian suggested the U.S. could continue operations for an extended period, citing “ample ground munitions” to support prolonged engagement. On March 6, Trump met with defense firms and announced plans to boost production of top-tier weapons. While the White House framed the agreement as a strategic move, Grieco questioned its urgency. “Most of these deals had already been announced,” she said, suggesting the meeting was more about public reassurance than new commitments.

As the conflict unfolds, the balance between offensive capability and defensive resources will determine its sustainability. While the U.S. maintains a strong arsenal, the pace of high-grade weapon usage and the time needed to replenish them raise important questions about the long-term viability of this military campaign.