Iran says millions are mourning Khamenei. That’s not the full picture

Beyond the Spectacle: Understanding Iran’s Complex Response to Khamenei’s Death

Iran says millions are mourning Khamenei – While millions gathered to pay their respects during the funeral ceremonies for Iran’s slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the official narrative of national unity tells only part of a much more complicated story. As Sunday’s prayers unfolded before the leader’s coffin, top government officials and three of the ayatollah’s sons stood among the crowds. Yet certain figures conspicuously failed to appear—former presidents who had fallen out with the current power structure. Their missing presence challenged Tehran’s carefully constructed messaging about solidarity, a theme that permeated every aspect of Khamenei’s week-long funeral proceedings.

A Tale of Two Nations

The funeral events, which concluded with Khamenei’s burial in the northeastern city of Mashhad on Thursday, attracted enormous crowds of people who genuinely support the Islamic Republic’s mission. However, with a total population of 90 million, Iran represents two distinct realities: those who mourn deeply, and those who feel little connection to the spectacle. Many citizens harbor resentment toward the elaborate displays, linking Khamenei to an authoritarian system that has progressively crushed opposition over decades. Meanwhile, others experience profound indifference, with some viewing the funeral period as a chance to escape overcrowded urban centers.

The missing former leaders also reveal the tight control exercised by event organizers. While the current regime’s core supporters appear more energized than ever, the committee chose to limit participation to essential figures rather than showcasing broader representation.

Questions Surrounding Leadership Transition

Perhaps the most intriguing absence was that of Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader’s son and designated successor. Since his appointment following his father’s death, the new leader has remained largely invisible to the public eye. This has sparked considerable speculation regarding his location and role during this critical period.

Arash Azizi, a US-based Iran expert and author of the book “What Iranians Want,” said that “the organizing committee of the funeral had the opportunity to project regime unity by including figures such as pro-reform former presidents.”

Azizi further observed that the committee “instead decided to go for a tight ship, only core and top officials of the regime.” This selective approach reflects a deliberate strategy rather than an oversight.

Expert Analysis on Regime Stability

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, noted that the regime has leveraged Khamenei’s funeral to strengthen its foundation. According to Parsi, support within the leadership circle has likely reached unprecedented levels. “I don’t think it is a majority of the country, however,” Parsi clarified, acknowledging the gap between elite consensus and public sentiment.

Two reformist former presidents who skipped Sunday’s prayers—Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani—had both previously clashed with Khamenei. Azizi pointed out that both were effectively removed from power by the supreme leader. Former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad faced a similar fate, though as a hardliner who later turned against Khamenei and was consequently marginalized. Ahmadinejad did attend Monday’s ceremonies, marking an unusual public return after years of separation. Iranian media captured images of him moving through the massive crowds during the procession.

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, told CNN that “Tehran wants to project that it can lose its supreme leader without losing its continuity of governance.”

Vaez continued, explaining that “Massive crowds and carefully choreographed ceremonies reinforce that message, but the conspicuous absence of key figures also reminds the world that the leadership still feels profoundly vulnerable and is not seeking to cast a broad umbrella.”

Wartime Consolidation of Power

At the beginning of the conflict, both the United States and Israel placed significant bets on potential regime change in Iran. Experts generally considered this outcome unlikely given Tehran’s established succession mechanisms. Each assassination has historically been followed by a new appointment, frequently resulting in harder-line leadership than before.

Analysts now identify a complex mix of emotions across a nation whose government has long relied on coercion and repression to suppress opposition. Since hostilities with the US and Israel escalated earlier this year, Iran has conducted extensive arrests under the banner of “wartime conditions.” A May report by Amnesty International documented these actions.

“Iranian authorities have arbitrarily arrested more than 6,000 people, including protesters, journalists, lawyers, human rights defenders, dissidents and members of ethnic and religious minorities,” the human rights group said.

Additionally, judiciary spokesperson Asghar Jahangir announced that over 3,000 individuals were detained in the previous month for allegedly collaborating with “the enemy,” according to a statement broadcast on the semi-official Student News Network. Meanwhile, Iran projected that as many as 15 million mourners would attend the main funeral day, though this figure represents official expectations rather than independent verification.