No, Iran is not winning: In Act IV of the war, it’s losing its leverage in Hormuz
No, Iran Is Not Winning: Hormuz Leverage Collapses
Earthguardiansonline.com – No, Iran is not winning — and the evidence now points in one direction. For months, a comfortable story circulated in Western capitals: the United States and Israel hammered Iran, extracted maximal demands, and still could not break Tehran’s will. The Islamic Republic survived. Its remaining missiles still shadowed regional capitals. Most critically, Iran kept its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow corridor through which approximately one-third of global seaborne oil transits. Hold that chokepoint, and Tehran could spike energy prices, squeeze American consumers, and force a president eyeing midterms to blink.
That equation has inverted. Beginning in mid-July, Washington reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports and layered fresh sanctions onto the country’s oil exports. American warships have since run around-the-clock operations to sweep shipping lanes and escort commercial tankers through the waterway. The result is unambiguous: Iranian crude shipments have been effectively cut off, global supply has rebounded, and pump prices have stabilized. Bloomberg data published this week shows crude volumes transiting the Strait have climbed back to roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels.
The squeeze now compounds on Tehran, not on Washington. Strip away the Strait as a bargaining chip, and the single most potent instrument of Iran’s wartime leverage vanishes almost overnight. No, Iran is not winning this contest — the fourth act of the war has turned decisively against it.
Four Movements of a Six-Month War
The conflict, which ignited in late February, has played out in recognizable phases. The opening strike landed on February 28 as a dense barrage of airstrikes that launched six weeks of sustained, high-intensity operations against Iranian command and military infrastructure. That first movement closed with an April 7 ceasefire and a window of talks. Those negotiations yielded a memorandum of understanding on June 17, countersigned by President Donald Trump and Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian, briefly sketching a de-escalation roadmap.
The truce held for weeks. Then Iran resumed targeting commercial vessels in the Strait, provoking another cycle of tit-for-tat strikes. At that juncture, voices in Congress and the press declared the United States had exhausted its options and should effectively hand the waterway to Tehran. For a brief moment, the American position looked untenable.
The current movement tells a starker story. The reimposed naval blockade combined with oil sanctions has produced what amounts to a military embargo — a condition the Islamic Republic has never endured since the 1979 Revolution. For the first time in nearly half a century, a foreign power has quarantined Iran’s economic lifeline through Hormuz. No, Iran is not winning; the arithmetic of sustained confrontation no longer favors Tehran.
The Economic Vice Tightens
Iran walked into this war already hollowed out by years of sanctions and domestic mismanagement. Its position today is materially worse. The International Monetary Fund projects the Iranian economy will contract by more than five percent this year, while inflation edges toward seventy percent. The rial has shed value sharply, and prices for staple goods have climbed steeply. An official in Iran’s Labor Ministry recently estimated that over one million jobs disappeared during the war’s first three months alone.
Those numbers matter because sustaining a prolonged military confrontation demands far more than a surviving missile arsenal. It requires fuel, spare parts, wages, and the quiet acquiescence of a population. Before the war, the regime already faced unprecedented street pressure: thousands of Iranians were reportedly killed in protests against repressive governance and economic collapse. A more effective American strategy from the outset might have paired military pressure with an economic campaign aimed at supporting those demanding change.
Instead, the first act’s removal of most of Iran’s senior leaders produced consolidation by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and further crackdowns on the majority of Iranians who oppose their rule. The Guards require resources to govern by force, and the current military embargo strikes directly at that capacity. No, Iran is not winning — the Guards’ own logistical base is being eroded from outside.
Tehran’s Narrowing Exit
The path out of this noose is visible to anyone watching: cease threatening ships in the Strait and abandon what remains of the largely destroyed uranium-enrichment program. That combination would constitute a deal Trump would accept. Yet from the vantage point of the Revolutionary Guards, conceding either point would signal the end of their political dominance. The longer they hold out, the deeper the economic vice tightens — and the less leverage remains to trade.
The question is no longer whether Iran can keep the Strait open. The question is how long its own economy can survive with it closed.
Frequently Asked Questions
What share of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz?
Roughly one-third of the world’s seaborne oil transits the Strait. That single geographic fact made it Iran’s most powerful wartime bargaining chip — until the current naval blockade neutralized the threat.
When did the latest phase of the conflict begin?
The fourth movement, characterized by the reimposed naval blockade and tightened oil sanctions, took shape in mid-July. It followed earlier phases that included the February 28 airstrike campaign, the April 7 ceasefire, and the June 17 memorandum of understanding.
What does the IMF project for Iran’s economy this year?
The International Monetary Fund projects a contraction of more than five percent, with inflation approaching seventy percent. A Labor Ministry official has separately estimated over one million jobs lost in the war’s first three months.
What would constitute a workable exit for Tehran?
Analysts point to two conditions: Iran stops threatening commercial shipping in the Strait and abandons the remnants of its uranium-enrichment program. Together, those concessions would form a package President Trump has indicated he would accept.
