Republicans need evangelicals to turn out in the midterms. Faith leaders are sounding the alarm they may not

Earthguardiansonline.com – Republicans need evangelicals to turn out in the midterm elections, but conservative faith leaders warn that turnout cannot be taken for granted. White evangelicals remain a central part of President Donald Trump’s political coalition, and Republican candidates could face difficult races if reliable presidential-year voters do not cast ballots in a midterm.

Why evangelical turnout matters for Republicans

In the 2016, 2020 and 2024 elections, roughly eight in 10 White evangelicals voted for Trump nationally. Although they represent about 13% of the population, their strong voting participation can make them roughly 20% of the electorate, according to the Public Religion Research Institute.

“[Republicans] cannot win — I don’t care where you are in the country — without the evangelical vote,” said Ryan Burge, a professor at Washington University in St. Louis’ John C. Danforth Center on Religion and Politics.

Republicans need evangelicals to turn out especially in competitive contests across the South, including races in Texas, Georgia, Kansas and South Carolina. In South Carolina, Darline Graham, the sister of late Sen. Lindsey Graham, is running against Democrat Annie Andrews in a race that has become more competitive than Republicans expected.

Yet some pastors and conservative organizers say they see little evidence that national Republican campaign committees are specifically targeting evangelical voters. One conservative evangelical pastor in Texas, who spoke anonymously, said assuming those voters will automatically participate is risky.

Faith leaders push churches and voters to engage

Much of the outreach is being handled by individual churches and groups such as the Faith and Freedom Coalition. The organization has launched a get-out-the-vote effort aimed at “drop-off voters” — evangelicals who vote in presidential elections but have not consistently participated in midterms.

Democrats are also seeking support among White Christian voters. Their efforts include presenting Democratic priorities as consistent with faith-based values and recruiting candidates, including pastors, for whom religion is an important part of their public identity.

Economic pressures could complicate the Republican message. With gas and grocery prices high, Trump’s approval rating underwater and Republican enthusiasm described as tepid, the election will test whether White evangelicals remain motivated to vote in force. North Carolina Rep. Mark Harris, a former pastor, said evangelical voters face the same household expenses as everyone else but understand the larger political stakes.

Pastors describe a need for more outreach

Southern Baptist Convention President Willy Rice has urged pastors to educate congregations about the midterms. Rice said voters should consider foundational questions about right and wrong, truth and falsehood, rather than focusing only on immediate economic concerns.

Chad Connelly, a former national director of faith engagement at the Republican National Committee, has met with pastors in more than 20 states during the past two months. After more than 80 pastor meetings, he said additional work remains necessary because evangelical turnout can make a decisive difference.

Faith and Freedom Coalition founder and chairman Ralph Reed acknowledged the political headwinds facing the party holding the White House in a midterm election. Still, he said his organization expects to increase participation among evangelical voters who often sit out non-presidential contests.

Frequently asked questions

Why do Republicans need evangelicals to turn out?

White evangelical voters have supported Trump at high rates and can account for a sizable share of the electorate. Their participation may be particularly important in close races where a small turnout decline could affect the outcome.

What are groups doing to encourage participation?

Churches, pastors and conservative organizations are holding outreach efforts intended to educate voters and encourage midterm participation, with particular attention to evangelicals who vote in presidential elections but skip other contests.