Why did US and Israel attack Iran and how long could the war last?
Escalating Tensions in the Middle East
The Middle East conflict has intensified following coordinated attacks by the US and Israel on Iran. On 28 February, strikes targeting Iran’s missile systems, military installations, and leadership in Tehran and across the country led to the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had ruled since 1989. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was designated as his successor on 8 March. Other high-ranking Iranian figures, including security chief Ali Larijani, intelligence minister Esmail Khatib, and Basij force commander Gholamreza Soleimani, were also killed in the initial strikes.
Iranian Retaliation and Regional Impact
Iran swiftly retaliated, launching missile and drone attacks on Israel and US-aligned nations in the Gulf. The conflict quickly spread to Lebanon, with escalating casualties and damage reported on all fronts. A US submarine sank an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka on 4 March, resulting in at least 87 fatalities. Meanwhile, the US-based group Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA) reported 3,530 deaths in Iran since the war began, including 1,606 civilians, 244 of whom were children.
“Iran accused the US and Israel of launching an unprovoked and illegitimate attack on a girls’ school near an IRGC base, claiming 168 people, including around 110 children, were killed.”
The US stated it was investigating the incident, while Israel claimed it was unaware of any operations in the area. Expert analysis confirmed a US Tomahawk missile struck a military base close to the school. Access to Iran for journalists is limited, and internet connectivity has been largely restricted, complicating information flow.
Expanding Fronts and International Reactions
By 3 April, a US F-15 jet was shot down over western Iran. The pilot was rescued, and a search-and-rescue mission, which faced fire, found a second crew member later that day. The US and its Arab allies condemned Iran’s attacks, labeling them as targeting civilians and countries not directly involved in the conflict. The war has also spread to Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, with 13 US service members killed and at least 24 others across the Gulf.
In northern Iraq, a French soldier died from a drone strike at a Kurdish military base. The Iraqi Ministry of Defence reported seven soldiers killed in an airstrike in Anbar province on 25 March, though the attacker was not identified. The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), formed to combat ISIS, also noted 27 of its members were killed. In the Israeli-occupied West Bank, four Palestinian women were killed at a beauty salon during an Iranian missile strike. Turkey claimed NATO defenses downed three Iranian missiles over its airspace, while Azerbaijan accused Iran of drone attacks on an airport.
What’s Next?
The conflict’s duration remains uncertain. As of 29 March, Israel’s ambulance service reported 19 casualties from missile fire. With tensions rising, the potential for prolonged hostilities appears high, affecting regional stability and global supply chains. The war continues to evolve, with each side escalating strikes and accusing the other of aggression.
