The US and Iran have a deal on paper. At sea, the Strait of Hormuz is ‘chaotic’

The US and Iran Have a Deal on Paper, But Hormuz Remains Chaotic

The US and Iran have a deal – The United States and Iran have reached a tentative agreement to stabilize the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. However, the waterway continues to experience turbulence, with recent incidents underscoring the fragility of the new pact. On Thursday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a sharp directive to maritime vessels, asserting that any movement through the strait without their consent could invite “consequences.” This declaration highlights the growing tension between the two nations, as the deal is put to the test by escalating hostilities in the region.

A Fractured Ceasefire in the Persian Gulf

A dramatic event occurred just hours after the warning, when a drone attack on the Singapore-registered container ship *Ever Lovely* raised alarms. According to a U.S. official, the strike marked the first direct challenge to the agreement since its signing, prompting President Donald Trump to call it a “violation of our ceasefire.” In response, the U.S. military conducted strikes against Iranian military assets near the strait, though officials later emphasized that the actions were meant to deter further aggression rather than escalate the conflict.

“If any vessel attempts to transit without our approval… or deviates from the designated route, it is responsible for any consequences,” declared Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, reinforcing their grip on the maritime corridor.

The incident has exposed the precarious nature of the agreement, which balances Iran’s demands for control with the U.S.’s commitment to open trade. While the deal aims to prevent full-scale war, it has created a patchwork of regulations, with three distinct routes now in use—each vying for dominance. This fragmentation has left ship operators navigating a complex web of political and operational risks, complicating efforts to restore normal maritime flow.

The US and Iran’s Ambiguous Framework

The US and Iran have outlined a framework that includes Iran’s promise to “arrange safe passage” for commercial vessels, but the specifics remain unclear. The newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) has introduced an email authorization system for ships, offering a “Safe Passage Guarantee” in exchange for insurance coverage. Yet, the process has been inconsistent, with emails from CNN to the PGSA going unanswered, fueling uncertainty among traders.

Despite the agreement’s intent to ease tensions, the U.S. and Iran have maintained their strategic leverage. Iran’s insistence on controlling the northern route has been met with resistance, as some vessels opt for alternative paths to avoid potential threats. Meanwhile, the U.S. has signaled readiness to impose sanctions on ships that pay tolls to Iran, creating a delicate balance between compliance and retaliation. This duality has made the strait a battleground for competing interests, even as the deal remains on paper.

“The current environment is extremely dangerous for maritime operators,” noted Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of Marisks, to CNN. He explained that the US and Iran’s conflicting demands have left shippers in a precarious position, with each decision carrying significant risks.

Global Trade and Strategic Risks

The US and Iran have both acknowledged the strait’s strategic importance, yet their interpretations of control differ. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have claimed the northern route as their exclusive domain, while the U.S. has sought to ensure free passage for commercial vessels. This standoff has disrupted the flow of oil, with some tankers rerouting to bypass the area, causing delays and increased costs. The agreement’s success hinges on how effectively both sides can enforce their terms, but the recent attacks suggest that the waters remain a volatile zone.

As the US and Iran’s deal unfolds, the broader implications for global trade and regional stability are emerging. The strait accounts for nearly 20% of the world’s oil shipments, and any disruption could send ripples through international markets. Meanwhile, the geopolitical chessboard continues to shift, with the U.S. and Iran using the agreement as a tool to assert influence. The lack of clarity in the ceasefire’s implementation has left the future of the waterway—and the stability of the deal—uncertain.